I don’t think luck exists. Here’s why.
Or maybe it does...but I refuse to acknowledge it - just a mindset hack.
This is a mental model and personal philosophy I’m currently incorporating myself - susceptible to change in the future.
I don’t quite believe in the existence of luck in the presence of hard work.
Say you work extremely hard at something, dedicating your blood, sweat, and tears to creating an outcome many dream of.
And the comments can come in as:
“Lucky you.”
“Lucky this.”
“Lucky that.”
And maybe you too fall into that “Was I lucky?” trap again.
From what I see, luck derogates the preparation and effort needed to seize and capitalize on the opportunity.
Disclaimer
As I type this, I fully acknowledge the existence of circumstantial luck—you just happened to be in a better spot than others to achieve your goals. However, I’m referring to consequential luck (or outcome luck), where your efforts—not luck—vindicate your success.
And from what I’ve seen, most people with circumstantial luck don’t achieve consequential luck mainly because of one thing—privilege.
We move on.
Luck Surface Area
There’s a concept of Luck Surface Area, pre-eminently used by Jim Collins, and he describes it as “the amount of exposure an individual has to opportunities and resources that can lead to success.”
However, I won’t use that definition - I have my own.
Back to the first principles:
Surface area is the area of a surface. Easy definition.
Luck surface area thus becomes your scope of luck - how much luck you can generate and access.
Basically, the harder, smarter, more intentional, and more strategic your work is, the greater the chances of luck happening.
And hence, the greater your luck surface area.
Let’s use an example.
The Allegory of the Arrows
Say you’re at a shooting range.
You have two bows: A simple one and a mechanical one.
With your simple bow, you have one arrow. With that arrow, your chances of hitting a bull’s eye are abysmally small.
Now, say you have a mechanical bow—handmade, structured, and concretely made. You have 58 arrows, all of which you can shoot simultaneously if you want—your chances of hitting the target become humungously large.
You increased your chances of hitting the bull’s eye because you purposefully crafted your bow:
You measured the correct dimensions.
You sourced the right material.
You applied the proper Physics.
You created slick arrows.
You’ve probably practiced 1,000 times.
You’re not lucky if you hit the bull’s eye nine times out of ten. You prepared for it.
Now, others will claim you’re cheating - fair game - but were there rules to the game to begin with?
And if there were, then in the game of success, the rules are either:
Meant to be broken, or
Redefined
I’ve learned that successful people mostly play by their own rules, even if it means breaking some of them. They are the mavericks of society who aren’t afraid to challenge the norm to achieve their dreams.
And one of those rules is to work ridiculously hard that success becomes inevitable.
And when you’re in that state of hardwork, you increase your chances of luck.
Simply because you can’t lose.
In fact, I like to twist it this way: You don’t need luck—luck needs you.
Luck needs you to stay relevant.
The Relevance of Luck
Interestingly, I learned this from a popular figure.
First, some got extremely lucky where the effort doesn’t justify it: gamblers, crypto pumps, excessive risk-takers, etc. These folks skew the numbers against the commoners’ odds, making the latter dislike them…and, thus, any following sense of “luck.”
When you think about it, it’s something popular in the online guru culture; many “gurus” are likely to host a $25,000 mastermind course, which, counterintuitively, earns more than what got them rich in the first place.
However, these phenomenons lack one thing:
The skills and character that necessitate their success. (I’ll give a parable on this soon.)
Regardless, they took the shortcut to success.
And as far as success is concerned, there are no shortcuts.
And so, by that merit, they haven’t succeeded.
They only succeed when they go through what it really takes to succeed.
The dirty work. The failed attempts. The late nights and early mornings. The empty fridges and cold floors. Everything that validates the success they have today - they skipped that.
To Jim Rohn’s analogy, a duck will always be a duck even if it convinces itself (and others) it’s an eagle simply because it’s in eagle school. That’s why, despite the quick windfall, 70% of lottery winners are likely to declare bankruptcy within three to five years.
Re-enter Luck Surface Area
It can be argued that most successful people got lucky at some point - no doubt about that. However, they determined their luck and how often they would get lucky.
Or rather, they capitalized on their Luck Surface Area.
I learned from Alex Hormozi that the more times you do stuff and the more iterations you make, the luckier you become simply because you increase your chances of success by +1 each iteration.
You’re increasing the likelihood that, at least by one more trial, you’ll get the big hit.
You’ll likely get that one viral video if you post 1,000 times than you do 10.
You’ll likely close a sale if you cold-call 1,000 times more than you do 10.
You’ll likely return 750% from one investment as a VC firm if you invest in 1,000 startups than you do 100. (Andreessen Horowitz and Y Combinator as examples.)
And so on.
I like how Hormozi sums it: “Volume negates luck.”
Back to the successful
If someone got extremely lucky and made a fortune from a quick buck, credit to them, even though it’s likely a one-off.
But I don’t think it would be considered luck anymore if a person got lucky even seven times along the way - that’s too many chances of (un)intentional luck. A person of that caliber is just built differently.
Conclusion
And for that, I don’t think you need luck to succeed.
Again, I personally dismiss the notion of luck, though that might change in the future. We’ll see.
I like intentionality. I like strategy. I like anticipation. And I like preparation.
I like being ready, prepared, and qualified for when the right opportunity comes, coupled with the ability to skillfully maneuver the situation to get an ideal (or even better) outcome. That, to me, replaces luck.
You work so hard that luck needs you.
You create your own luck.
.
.
.
~T.K.K
If you like this, definitely subscribe.
Did you learn something from this post?
Yes
No
Maybe..?
Comments